WASHINGTON – America’s strong economic growth at the national level does not imply strong growth for every local jurisdiction. From 2001 to 2018, the national economic output increased over 40 percent. Despite strong national numbers, over a quarter of the nation’s counties have not yet returned to pre-recession GDP levels and nearly a quarter of the nation’s counties experienced a decline in GDP in the most recent year over year analysis That’s according to a new report, County Economic Output Trends, released today by the National Association of Counties (NACo). This report, and a second titled, Local Economies in the Global Market, which analyzes county engagement with the world economy, are part of NACo’s new County Economies 2020 series.

“Too often glossed over by strong national economic data, the story of the local economy, and the American workers it represents, needs to be told,” said NACo Executive Director Matthew Chase. “These reports take a deep dive into the county role within diverse national and global economies and paint a detailed and surprisingly unique picture of where we really are as a nation.”

County Economic Output Trends analyzes new county-level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The analysis finds a diverse national economy on the rise, but evidence not all local economies are experiencing the same expansion. Large counties with populations over 500,000 experienced a 62 percent higher per capita GDP than small counties with populations less than 50,000. Western county economies lead in growth, driven by the finance, insurance, real estate and information sectors. Just over 2 percent of all counties did not experience any economic decline at all during the recession. Montgomery County, Texas fared among the best in surviving the recession with consistent year-over-year growth and a 173 percent increase in GDP from 2001 to 2018.

Local Economies in the Global Market analyzes county engagement with the world economy through NACo’s new Global Market Engagement Index, emphasizing the key role counties play in encouraging exports and exploring foreign investment. The report finds that export-reliant counties tend to have faster economic growth, but slower jobs growth. Most exports came from large counties, but small county economies were more reliant on exports. Large counties also received more foreign investment in total, though small counties received more lucrative projects on average. Forty percent of the nation’s counties (1,226) received foreign investment between 2003 and 2017. Those counties experienced faster GDP and jobs growth. The report finds county economies are becoming more reliant on the global market. County leaders are engaging in more international economic development by developing international business relationships, forming regional partnerships and advancing local infrastructure. Nevertheless, each county must consider its own unique situation and partner with cities, states, the federal government and the private sector to ascertain the appropriate level of global engagement for its local industries.

By the numbers:

41 percent increase of national economic output from 2001 ($13.3 trillion) to 2018 ($18.6 trillion). However, not every county benefited from this increase.
$26,102 difference between per capita GDP of large counties ($68,145) and small counties ($42,043)
806 counties have not yet recovered from the Great Recession. On the other hand, 73 counties did not experience any decline in economic output during the recession
17 percentage points higher economic growth in the West than in all counties from 2001 to 2018. Western counties grew by 55 percent during this time
1,105 counties outpaced short-term national economic growth from 2017 to 2018, while 728 counties experienced a decrease in production during that time
$2.5 trillion of goods and services were exported by the U.S. in 2018. County economies that were more reliant on exports tended to have faster rates of economic growth.
12 million jobs across county economies are supported by and would not exist without exports, yet, export-reliant county job markets tended to have slower jobs growth.
55 percent of exports came from the manufacturing industry. Since 1987, the manufacturing industry lost nearly 5 million jobs, while increasing real output by over 85 percent
1.2 million jobs created by $542 billion of new foreign direct investment (FDI) in county economies between 2003 and 2017
40 percent of counties (1,226) received at least one new foreign investment project between 2003 and 2017

Read the full County Economic Output Trends and Local Economies in the Global Market reports here.

NACo will release a comprehensive County Economies 2020 report examining economic output and local economic impacts of housing affordability, global market engagement, income inequality and workforce trends at the NACo Annual Conference in Orange County, Fla. in July. The report will be accompanied by a comprehensive economic profile for each of the 3,069 counties which will display on NACo’s County Explorer at https://ce.naco.org.

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