Predictive Analytics Strengthens DSS Foster Care Effort

About the Program

Category: County Administration and Management (Best in Category)

Year: 2020

In Durham County—and nationally—the number of children in foster care is consistently and sharply increasing. This impacts critical points within the system including caseworkers, foster caregivers and other items tied to County budget and resources. The business challenge faced by Durham County is to forecast the number of children who will need help. An accurate forecast allows the County to adjust these critical resources in advance to better match resources necessary to smoothly provide high-quality services to address fundamental needs–education, physical, mental health, safety and well-being—while establishing a permanent plan for the care of the child. Durham County (N.C.) Department of Social Services implemented a home-grown predictive analytics solution to help mitigate the challenge. (Predictive analytics is the use of advanced analytic techniques that leverage historical data to uncover real-time insights and to predict future events.) DCo utilized a set of predictive analysis model testing analytical tools to enable the Government to prepare fact-based forecasts--analytical predictions versus estimates based on opinions. Overall, the County was able to predict the number of children who will be within the foster care program through 2025 and the impact on resources to maintain or increase the level of care.