 National Association of Counties * Washington, D.C. Vol. 31, No. 15 * August 9, 1999 Previous story | Table of Contents | Next story Toffler tells delegates to brace for 'explosion' of change By Kevin Wilcox
Alvin Toffler, who has made a living for more than 30 years discussing the future, talks about change with an almost Biblical poetry. He speaks of technology as a "third wave" of change and of a coming convergence and explosion. At the July 18 Opening General Session, Toffler told delegates that the world is changing to a knowledge-based economy that will alter how people work, shift the balance of power between local and centralized governments and make industrial economic models obsolete. "People talk about the future of the economy. The time has come to pay less attention to the future of the economy and more attention to the economy of the future," Toffler said. The roots of this new economy stretch back to the mid 1950s, Toffler said, when white-collar workers outnumbered blue-collar workers for the first time in America. Within five years, businesses would buy the first computers, jet travel became popular, television ownership became universal and rockets were in space. In the 40 years from those humble beginnings, computers have become smaller and more powerful. There are more than 257 million personal computers. Computer users will spend an estimate $1 trillion on electronic commerce by 2002. Experts predict seven trillion e-mails will be sent in 2000. "It’s happening all over the world. Village elders in Peru are online and shipping vegetables to New York," Toffler said. "Garlic farmers in China are on the Net and have found a market in Germany." Toffler said e-commerce will slash costs. Some businesses are able to sell something over the Internet with 14 cents in expenses, versus $5.90 for the same sale with a phone operator. As encompassing as these changes have been, the real effects will be seen when the changes in all the facets of life converge, Toffler told delegates. "All the different spheres of existence are being webbed more tightly," Toffler said. "You can’t change something in the social sphere without it having an effect on the other spheres. The feedback is so fast no one even understands it." "The connectivity that most people talk about is only a small part of a developing connectivity," he added. "It will alter the relation of cities to counties, of counties to states, of states to Washington, of Washington to Tokyo." Toffler asked delegates if they’ve started in their counties to plan for the changes that are coming. "There’s a trend in business to say ‘change is so fast you can’t strategize. All you need to do is be agile.’ I think that’s wrong," Toffler said, adding that not only are strategies still possible, but they’re vitally important. At a time when businesses worldwide are eliminating levels of management, Toffler said, counties must strategize for their very existence. "What new functions will justify a level of government between cities and the federal government?" Toffler asked delegates. "The world is going to be different," Toffler concluded. "It will be filled with surprises. Some of them good. Just remember, for good or for ill, we are the creators and the children of change." |
